Introduction to Pomp: Inference for Partially-observed Markov Processes

نویسندگان

  • AARON A. KING
  • EDWARD L. IONIDES
  • CARLES BRETÓ
  • STEPHEN P. ELLNER
  • BRUCE E. KENDALL
چکیده

1. Partially-observed Markov processes 1 2. A first example: a discrete-time bivariate autoregressive process. 3 3. Defining a partially observed Markov process in pomp. 3 4. Simulating the model 5 5. Computing likelihood using particle filtering 6 6. Interlude: utility functions for extracting and changing pieces of a pomp object 9 7. Estimating parameters using iterated filtering: mif 10 8. Nonlinear forecasting: nlf 11 9. Trajectory matching: traj.match 12 10. A more complex example: a seasonal epidemic model 14 References 18

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Inference and Filtering for Partially Observed Diffusion Processes via Sequential Monte Carlo

Diffusion processes observed partially or discretely, possibly with observation error, arise when constructing stochastic models in continuous time. The method of Sequential Monte Carlo provides an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and can be effective in complex models at the cutting edge of scientific research. This paper introduces Sequential Monte Carlo approaches to inferenc...

متن کامل

Probability , Statistics , and Computational Science Niko

In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur ...

متن کامل

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Diffusion Processes

I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Susanne Ditlevsen, for scientific advise and her never failing positivity toward her students. Also a very special thanks to Omiros Papaspilioupoulos who has been a big inspiration and for his patience during numerous Skype conversations; always encouraging and full of support and good ideas. Great thanks are also due to Mathieu Kessler for ...

متن کامل

Hierarchical Semi-Markov Conditional Random Fields for Recursive Sequential Data

Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirected Markov chains to model complex hierarchical, nested Markov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorithms for learning and inference. Importantly, we develop efficient algorith...

متن کامل

Likelihood based inference for observed and partially observed diffusions

This paper provides methods for carrying out likelihood based inference on non-linear observed and partially observed non-linear diffusions. The diffusions can potentially be non-stationary. The methods are based on innovative Markov chain Monte Carlo methods combined with an augmentation strategy. We study the performance of the methods as the degree of augmentation goes to infinity and find t...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010